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Data/Event Risks

• USD: Thanksgiving Day holiday – as such, trading conditions will be lighter than usual. Some dollar longs took profits yesterday. Focus next week will return to fiscal cliff discussions.
• GBP: Only CBI Trends up for release today. Otherwise, keep attuned to scatter-gossip re how Whitehall discussions on Autumn Budget Statement are progressing.
• EUR: French preliminary manufacturing and services PMI today, as well as actual German and EC PMI. Focus though will remain on how Europe bridges differences with IMF over Greece.

Data/Event Risks

• USD: Housing Starts data not a major event risk, but stronger data (as seen with yesterday’s housing data) could support better tone to risk.
• EUR: Finance ministers meet on Greece deciding on next bailout payment and further short-fall in funding from relaxation of last week’s targets. Risk for late session volatility, especially given divisions with the IMF.

The new political troika

What is notable right now in FX markets is just how much the fate of the majors (USD, JPY & EUR) is tied up in near-term political developments. This never makes for the easiest of markets, but does create the potential for greater volatility, as was seen in the yen last week.  On the dollar, it’s the much talked-about fiscal cliff. Sentiment on the issue appears to have solidified a little more over the past few days, which has helped to underpin the better tone to markets, and risk assets in particular. The basis for this remains fragile though, with just positive rhetoric from the President and Treasury Secretary to support confidence. For now, the signs are that we are still in for something of a ride, but the more that time goes by, the greater the likelihood is that we have a sticking plaster which once again delays the longer-term decisions that need to be taken.

Data/Event Risks

• USD: Existing home sales data should not rock the boat. Focus on fiscal cliff negotiations, but no key developments expected today.
• EUR: Headlines on Greece still a risk ahead of finance ministers meeting tomorrow when final details of next loan tranche expected to be agreed.

Die erste Runde im Verteidigungskampf der Schweizer Nationalbank (SNB) gegen den Devisenmarkt ging ganz klar an die Eidgenossen. Die im September vergangenen Jahres angekündigte Untergrenze für den Wechselkurs des Euro in Schweizer Franken von 1,20 wurde zu keinem Zeitpunkt signifikant unterschritten.