Jobangebote bei TRADERS´

Data/Event Risks

• EUR: EU current account and construction data due out this morning, as well as Italian industrial orders and the German Ifo. The latter is probably the most important – might just get an upside surprise, which could provide the euro with a slight lift.
• USD: Plenty of housing data out today, including starts and permits at 13:30. Focus is squarely on Capitol Hill.
• GBP: MPC Minutes at 09:30, followed by CBI Reported Sales late morning. Little chance of anything much from the MPC – QE seems off the table for now.
• JPY: BOJ has a two day meeting, with monetary policy announcement expected tonight. They are under huge pressure to go large on extra easing measures.  

Data/Event Risks

• EUR: Little due for release other than Irish GDP late morning. Traders focused away from the single currency (for a change), absorbed by Japan/the yen, and the fiscal cliff. Ifo tomorrow. Euro still looking solid.
• USD: Fiscal cliff is the only real game in town right now – some encouraging signs are emerging, but there is still a long way to go. USD in a holding pattern while negotiations continue.
• GBP: Inflation data today, followed by MPC Minutes and CBI Sales tomorrow. Cable sitting pretty above 1.62, and looking OK.

Data/Event Risks

• EUR: Not much fresh news due today, just EU Trade at 10am. Retains a bid tone against other majors, despite proximity to holiday season.  
• USD: Empire Manufacturing at 1.30pm, may help the dollar very slightly if we get a positive reading. Fiscal cliff inching towards resolution as both sides show some willing. Republicans have a weak hand. A deal will likely help the dollar at the margin, and assist asset markets.

Wochenrückblick

Weitere 45 Milliarden US-Dollar monatliche Anleihekäufe als Weihnachtsgeschenk für die schon in den vergangenen Monaten von allen Notenbanken dieser Welt liquiditätsverwöhnten Finanzmärkte - das war zwar weitestgehend erwartet worden, bedeutet aber einen noch größeren Schluck aus der Pulle als es die zum Jahresende auslaufende Operation Twist war, denn nun wird nicht mehr getauscht, sondern nur noch gekauft. Und das obwohl es in Sachen US-Wirtschaft doch einige Signale gibt, die auf eine schnellere Erholung hindeuten. Vielleicht haben die Aktienmärkte auch deshalb nicht ganz so euphorisch auf diesen Schritt reagiert, trauen sie eventuell den positiven Daten zum Arbeits- und Immobilienmarkt noch nicht so ganz über den Weg. Auch der Goldpreis legte nur kurzfristig eine Rally hin, zum Ende der Woche fiel das Edelmetall wieder unter die Marke von 1.700 Dollar zurück. Einzig und allein der Dollar reagierte erwartungsgemäß und fiel zum Euro, somit EUR/USD zum Ende der Woche wieder über 1,31.

A profound shift in the FX pecking order

Increasingly evident over recent weeks is a profound shift in the pecking order amongst the major currency markets.

The Japanese yen, for so long regarded as one of the safest ports to berth your wealth during this prolonged global financial storm, has been consigned to the bottom of the pack. Fundamentally, this is not surprising; the economy is back in recession, the trade balance is on course for a record deficit this year, the currency has been considerably over-valued and corporate Japan is suffering terribly. Throw in foreign political turmoil with China - which has triggered a buyers’ strike of Japanese goods - and domestic political angst which will result in a completely new government this weekend, and it is little wonder that the Japanese yen has been cast overboard. Most revealing has been the depth and breadth of the selling – since the yen’s demise against the majors really moved into full gear about five weeks ago there has barely been any pullbacks, which implies a sustained reallocation out of the currency by all and sundry, whether sovereign wealth funds, corporates, real money or high net worth. For now, there is no point in fighting the tape on the yen, notwithstanding perfectly valid warnings about it being oversold.