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Data/Event Risks
EUR: Focus on the German production numbers after the stronger orders data yesterday gave the euro a lift, although it was notable that the euro failed to sustain the gains later on. Production is seen falling 0.1% in March, after 0.5% gain during February.
NZD: Labour market data is released at 23:45 GMT, with the unemployment rate seen nudging lower to 6.8%. Note that AUDNZD has been moving lower for the previous 7 weeks now, but comments overnight threaten a continuation of this trend.
GBP:The market will have half an eye on the state opening of parliament, but it’s not likely to be a market moving event.
Gerade im Fußball wird in den Tagen vor dem ersten deutsch-deutschen Champions League Finale viel von Wachablösung gesprochen. Gemeint ist hier ein mögliches Ende der jahrelangen Vormachtstellung des spanischen Fußballs, den die Borussia aus Dortmund und der FC Bayern im Halbfinale der Königsklasse mit einem in zwei Zahlen ausgedrückten 11:3 eingeläutet haben könnten. Genau von dieser Wachablösung war auch zur Jahrtausendwende von Fondsmanagern, Zertifikate-Anbietern und Analysten oft die Rede und sie schufen sämtliche Produkte rund um vier Buchstaben: BRIC. BRIC steht dabei für Brasilien, Russland, Indien und China, wurde später um ein ,S' für Südafrika erweitert und sollte den Wandel in Sachen wirtschaftlicher Bedeutung der großen Industriestaaten hin zu den so genannten Emerging Markets einläuten.
Data/Event Risks
EUR: Just German Factory Orders data released today. This is not a major one for the euro, but could knock the singe currency if weaker than expected. Market looks for 0.5% MoM fall after 2.3% gain last month.
NZD: The Central Bank head Wheeler is due to speak at 21:05 GMT this evening, with the NZD seeing further strength recently and at a 2.5 year high vs. the Aussie dollar. The market will be sensitive to any hints of concern from the central bank.
Data/Event Risks
EUR: All eyes are on the ECB. The expectation is that they will cut the main reference rate (currently 0.75%) by 25bp. The bigger issue for euro is whether discount rate (which remunerates funds ‘parked’ at the ECB by banks) is cut to a negative number (currently it’s zero). This would be a far more negative factor for the single currency, ultimately setting up EURUSD for a re-test of 1.30 in the near-future.
GBP: Just construction PMI data, but has the potential to move sterling if far away from expectations. The series is expected to rise to 48.0 from 47.2 previously.
USD: The trade balance and initial claims data the main focus, but unlikely to induce much volatility on the dollar.
Data/Event Risks
USD: The main focus will be with the consumer confidence data at 14:00 GMT. Last release saw the headline reading fall to 59.7, with the market looking for a small rebound to 61.0. Dollar has been more resilient to weaker US data recently, partly owing to weaker than expected readings in non-US data.
EUR: After the weaker survey data last week, focus on the German labour market numbers. Weakening here could further seal an ECB rate cut this week. Unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.9%. Eurozone inflation is expected softer from previous 1.7%.
