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04. Jul
2013

Carney shows who is boss at the BOE

Geschrieben von: kathleenbrooks

Getagged in: Märkte aktuell , Forex

Mark Carney’s first meeting as Governor of the Bank of England turned out to be more eventful than many in the market had expected. Alongside the rate and asset purchase announcement (no change in either), the BOE, unusually, released a statement that included a detailed assessment of the UK’s economic outlook. Carney and co. at the Bank of England are obviously concerned about the rise in Gilt yields. The 10-year yield has risen to its highest level since October 2011 in recent weeks, and this was the chief economic risk included in the statement.

 

01. Jul
2013

A warm welcome to Mr. Carney

Geschrieben von: kathleenbrooks

Getagged in: Märkte aktuell , Forex

Mark Carney couldn’t have planned his first day as Governor of the Bank of England any better than this; not only is the sun shining in London, but we also have two British players in the last 16 of Wimbledon and the economic data is starting to play ball as well.

 

25. Jun
2013

Italy’s debt markets not playing ball

Geschrieben von: kathleenbrooks

Getagged in: Märkte aktuell , Forex

Stocks are higher, even emerging market stocks are higher today, yet there is one asset class that is joining in the party: Italian government debt. Yields are higher for the third straight session and the 10-year yield is now at its highest level since late February when yields spiked on the back of the inconclusive Italian elections. NB, bond yields move inversely to price.

20. Jun
2013

Post the FOMC: a few thoughts…

Geschrieben von: kathleenbrooks

Getagged in: Märkte aktuell , Forex

The markets are still in carnage mode post the FOMC. The worst of the damage has been in emerging markets, but the yen surge looks like it is out of steam, likewise, Treasury yields look poised to move higher. The interesting thing about last night was that the Fed seems to have ditched its softly, softly approach to the end of QE3. Last night was about coming clean to the market and laying it out as it is: tapering will happen later this year if economic growth stays at its current pace, and, shock horror, interest rates will eventually have to rise.

 

14. Jun
2013

Some musings on this week’s volatility

Geschrieben von: kathleenbrooks

Getagged in: Märkte aktuell , Forex

We are rounding off a week where USDJPY rose to a high of 99.30 before crashing to a low of 93.79, the Nikkei fell more than 6% and EURUSD and GBPUSD climbed to their highest level for four months. We will talk more about the events in Emerging markets in our Week Ahead report released later, but needless to say there was carnage in EM FX, which resulted in official intervention in Poland, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil and India to stem the decline in their currencies.

 

13. Jun
2013

USDJPY: is 90.00 on the cards?

Geschrieben von: kathleenbrooks

Getagged in: Märkte aktuell , Forex

USDJPY took another lurch lower overnight, dropping another 200 pips. This cross is at its lowest level since early April.

So is Abenomics unravelling? In our view it is a combination of the 2 factors:

1, uncertainty about the timing of Fed tapering, spooking stock markets and causing a flight to safety.

2, Signs that the BOJ may not be as committed to its stimulus plan as the market thought it was.

 

12. Jun
2013

GBP WATCH: major resistance level at 1.5700 up ahead

Geschrieben von: kathleenbrooks

Getagged in: Märkte aktuell , Forex

UK labour market data due at 0930 BST is the highlight on the European economic calendar today. The market expects a drop in jobless claims of 5,000 for May, and for April’s unemployment rate to remain steady at 7.8%. But don’t get too excited, wages are expected to grow a measly 0.2% in April. This comes after the Institute for Fiscal Studies reported that UK wages have fallen more in real terms during the current economic downturn than ever before:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22860320

 

29. Mai
2013

FX reflection: Treasury yields, the dollar and other thoughts …

Geschrieben von: kathleenbrooks

Getagged in: Märkte aktuell , Forex

There’s been some choppy price action today and the dollar has been the main loser, however, this does not suggest to us that the market is getting tired of the strong dollar theme just yet. It was only 24 hours ago that the market was fawning over the strongest level of annual house price growth in the US for 6 years and the highest level of consumer confidence since 2008. The dollar index surged to major resistance at 84.50 at one point on Tuesday and, unsurprisingly in our view, has been sticky around this key resistance level since then.

 

28. Mai
2013

USDJPY and Japanese bond yields

Geschrieben von: kathleenbrooks

Getagged in: Märkte aktuell , Forex

USDJPY has managed to claw back recent losses today as it has followed the Nikkei (the Japanese stock market) higher and been given a boost by a better than expected reading of US consumer confidence, which rose in May to its highest level for 5 years.

 

22. Mai
2013

GBP gets a pounding

Geschrieben von: kathleenbrooks

Getagged in: Märkte aktuell , Forex

It’s been a rough morning for GBP, with economic data thwarting early attempts at a GBP recovery. BOE minutes, retail sales and public sector data all weighed on the pound, pushing it below 1.5100 – a key support level. Data details: 

 

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