TRADERS´ Blogs

International gold is trading nearer to $ 1603 with marginal buying pressure. Price line is moving nearer to 34 day exponential moving average. In the lower technical indicators, MACD is moving upside and showing strength. On the other hand, Stochastic is also making upside indication at 77.62 level. Price line is expected to show some buying pressure for some trading sessions.

India's Indirect tax collections for the first 11 months of this fiscal rose by 20% to Rs.4.17 lakh crore. The Budget targeted 27% growth in indirect tax collections in 2012-13. Excise duty collections during April-February 2013 period totaled Rs.1.54 lakh crore, while customs duty and service tax collections were Rs.1.5 lakh crore and Rs.1.13 lakh crore, respectively. The government had fixed the target of indirect tax collections at Rs.5.05 lakh crore for the current fiscal, an increase of around 27% from the 2011-12 target. In February, indirect tax collections were Rs.41000 crore.

Indian Gold futures opened marginally lower at Rs 29,444 per 10 gm on today against the previous close of Rs 29,445. It made a high of Rs 29,467 and low of Rs 29,413. It was down by 0.02 per cent at Rs 29,439. In the Comex, the yellow metal for April delivery was up by $0.2 at $1,592 a troy ounce.

Currently, USD/INR is trading at 54.240 with the positive movement from few trading sessions. It is expected that it may bounce back from this level and reach up to 56 level again from this level. In technical, MACD is trying to make cut downward but a trend line in price line is making support. On the other hand, Stochastic is currently on oversold zone. Weekly support is at 53.626 and resistance can be seen at 55.054.

The downside risks to the global economic recovery have diminished since the end of last year, but a slow pace of economic growth is still likely in many economies. Fewer potential stumbling blocks on the path of global recovery as the US avoided a full scale of potential disruption implied by "fiscal cliff" and financing stresses eased in the euro area. Moreover, key emerging markets showed increasing signs that it will avoid a hard landing.

Oil prices were higher in Asian trade on positive news that robust trade data from the US & China will augur well for energy demand. Main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, was up 11 cents at US $95.83, whereas Brent crude for March delivery gained nine cents to US $118.99. The US trade deficit shrank more than expected in December to US $38.5 billion, its lowest level since January 2010, from a revised US $48.6 billion in November. China, the world’s 2^nd biggest economy and one of the largest energy consumers, also starts the New Year full of beans as better-than-expected economic news continues to be released. China’s exports jumped 25% YoY for January while imports soared nearly 29%.

World stock markets were mostly higher, boosted by better-than-expected trade data from China that provided new evidence of an upswing in the world's 2^nd largest economy. Exports rose 25% in January from a year earlier, while imports soared 28%. A large part of the increase was due to companies rushing to fill orders before shutting down for up to two weeks for the Lunar New Year holidays that begin Sunday. European stocks rose in early trading. UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.5% to 6,257.97. German index DAX added 0.4% to 7,616.93 & France's CAC-40 advanced 0.6% 3,623.22.

The Singapore dollar weakened against the US dollar in Asian morning deals and held steady thereafter. The Singapore dollar hit a 2-day low of 1.2398 against the greenback, compared to previous trading session's close of 1.2391. The greenback-Singapore dollar pair is presently trading at 1.2389. On the downside, the Singapore dollar may break 1.245 level.

Gold imports into mainland China from Hong Kong surged 94% to an all-time high last year as rising incomes in the world’s 2^nd largest economy underpinned increased demand and helped the metal to post a 12th annual gain. Mainland China imported 834,502 kilograms, including scrap & coins, compared with about 431,215 kilograms in 2011. Imports in December rose to a monthly record of 114,405 kilograms. Exports of gold to Hong Kong from China more than tripled to 310,861 kilograms in 2012 from about 95,529 kilograms a year earlier. On the other hand, China’s urban per capita disposable income rose 12.6% in nominal terms in 2012 to 24,565 yuan. Whereas, per capita rural net income has increased 13.5% in nominal terms & 10.7% in real terms, to 7,917 yuan. The economy may expand 8.1% this year from 7.9% in 2012.

Gold will likely be range-bound in the Indian market as the yellow metal is failing to attract investors after the US data signs of economic recovery. Still, currency movements could decide its swing in the domestic market since India depends on imports to meet demand. Last week, the Indian rupee’s rise saw gold being dormant. In fact, the rupee rose to a 3.5 month high against the dollar. Any rise in the rupee makes imports of commodities such as gold, crude oil and vegetable oils, the three that top the import basket of the country, costlier. In International, Spot gold was quoted at $1668.30 an ounce, while gold futures for delivery in April ruled at $1667.20.While in the Indian market on previous trading session, gold for jewellery ended weak at Rs 30,240 10 gm and pure gold at Rs 30,370.